1. Chargers (0) They're still my favorite to win it all next season.
2. Colts (0) Still sitting pretty at #2
3. Patriots (0) The Patriots are hemorrhaging players, but looking at each of the teams below them, one by one, I don't see any of these guys beating them with any regularity, even with a reduced personnel.
4. Cowboys (+1) I like how they're keeping Flozell Adams so that the O-line stays together and I like their chances for the playoffs next year, but those two games against the Eagles will be tough.
5. Giants (-1) Kawika Mitchell was no big loss, but I think Gibril Wilson did more for NY's CBs than people think.
6. Browns (+3) I honestly cannot believe the potential of their D-line next year. Corey Williams could be an excellent DE in their 3-4 and Shaun Rogers is the perfect nose tackle. Combine this with Kamerion Wimbley blitzing from the outside, and you might have a very talented defense (just get better CBs). Obviously, locking up QB Anderson was good too.
7. Seahawks (-1) Losing K Josh Brown is more key than anybody realizes right now, plus the Browns just got a whole lot better.
8. Jaguars (0) Are doing really well, unfortunately I can't move them up because of uncertainty at the QB position. As good as David Garrard is, he's not so much a playmaker as a caretaker. Only 18 TD passes is a little low. I think Jerry Porter will help him a lot, but I still have questions. They sure have fixed their secondary though.
9. Packers (-2) Have stood pat and I'm afraid I have to punish them for it. The team played in a weak division last year and clearly wasn't good enough to win when it really mattered at their own home field, so it's not like there aren't holes to fill. Also, not hearing about whether Favre is returning or not yet is concerning.
10. Eagles (0) Philly is doing very well. They're picking up marquee guys like Asante Samuel, but I think some of their best hires have been some little contracts. They're picking up lots of situational guys, passing down safeties, pass rushing LBs, etc. that I think will really help them with their depth next season.
11. Saints (+1) Hopefully the Vilma trade fixes a defense so that it doesn't have to let the offense down anymore. CB is still an issue.
12. Bills (+1) Very good trade by getting Stroud. He's a lot less of a risk than Jenkins or Rogers and has lots of proven production. That and the Mitchell signing indicate this team is very serious about getting to the playoffs next year. Look for them to help their offense in the draft.
13. Vikings (+2) Good hire with Berrian and, I hate to say it, Madieu Williams. I'm reluctant to put them this high up because of questions at QB, but the Steelers need to be demoted for losing Faneca. That is inexcusable.
14. Steelers (-1) All of last season the biggest problem with the Steelers was their O-line. Against not so good teams they would be fine, but throw them up against a decent pass rush (Jacksonville comes to mind) and suddenly every play looks like a QB bootleg since Big Ben has nowhere to throw from. Then they have their best lineman leave town? That is going to cost them.
15. Broncos (-4) Don't worry Bronco fans, you won't be this low for long. Something is clearly happening in Denver since they're clearing cap space like there's no tomorrow. First Walker and Gold, then restructuring Lynch's contract and almost losing him... as well as Henry's. The Broncos are about to make some big play that will cost them big.
16. Titans (0) I still have my misgivings about the Titans' WR group, but this team traditionally fixes problems through the draft, so we'll just have to wait and see.
17. Bears (+1) The Bears were quiet winners during free agency. The average age of their excellent defense is now just 27, plenty young to fix the offense and make several more playoff runs. Lance Briggs coming back was a surprise, but it allows them to focus on the very important positions for them next year, RB, QB, O-line and WR. Basically everything on offense except TE.
18. Buccaneers (-1) I'm not a huge fan of the Jeff Faine signing. I don't think he's worth the money. The Bucs still have a massively ancient QB, a fairly pedestrian group of WRs, and a very old pair of CBs. Some changes need to be made.
19. Ravens (0) I don't like the release of Flynn, but Ozzie Newsome knows what he's doing.
20. Redskins (o) They've been very quiet so far, and so their status remains.
21. Texans (0) Another quiet team. They are very close to slipping underneath the Bengals because Carson Palmer is such a sure thing every year, but as long as DeMeco Ryans has that defense, I'll put them a spot above.
22. Bengals (0) Probably higher than they deserve to be, but you should never underestimate the effect of having an elite QB.
23. Panthers (+1) Are clearly going about free agency with some objectives in mind. I like most of the moves so far.
24. Rams (+1) Great hire with K Josh Brown. I'm not so keen on the Bruce release, but I think it means they're planning on drafting a WR in the 2nd or 3rd round.
25. Cardinals (-2) It seems unlikely that they'll be able to restructure Fitzgerald's contract, and why should he agree to that? He's earned his money, and they signed the deal. Just because you now regret it later doesn't mean you can go back on it. On the other hand, it completely ruins their team and will cripple them both for free agency and during rookie signings.
26. Raiders (+1) Lots of people aren't so high on the Tommy Kelly signing, but I like it a lot. I think he will be very good for them. I also think they quietly picked up an impact player in Gibril Wilson. Combined with Nnamdi Asomugha, they're developing a potent pass defense.
27. Jets (+2) It's a shame about losing Vilma, but he wasn't fitting anymore. I think Kris Jenkins was a good hire, and Faneca will be a monster. The only tough pill to swallow is that nobody know who he'll be protecting.
28. Chiefs (-2) No contract yet for Jared Allen, just more cuts. Are we rebuilding or demolishing?
29. Lions (-1) They continue their free fall by failing to address major issues with their team. The Smith hiring was a start, but then trading away Rogers for more draft picks all too likely to be wasted wasn't such a hot move in my opinion. I also don't know how much production they'll get out of Leigh Bodden. He was a bit of a one-hit wonder in Cleveland and was part of a secondary that didn't exactly light it up. My fear is that he'll fit into Detroit almost too well (i.e. be awful in pass coverage just like the team).
30. 49ers (+1) Well they sure opened their wallets, it seems like half the league signed here. I'll put them above the Dolphins and Falcons, and they may even make a play for the 49ers, but don't get your hopes up San Francisco. Alex Smith to Isaac Bruce? Not going to happen very often.
31. Dolphins (+1) Hiring the most free agents is certainly a start. They failed to get any big names, but that might be for the best. While other teams went out for the monster hire, the Dolphins quietly filled some holes with some capable if unspectacular players. Good stuff.
32. Falcons (-2) I understand that it is Mike Smith's policy to have a quiet free agency, but when your starting DT is Montavious Stanley.....
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