Firstly, the obvious has to be said. This was one of the dumbest trades of all time. It ranks right up there with Dallas sending two first round picks to the Seahawks for Joey Galloway, except the opposite. In return for Allen, the Vikings give up their first round pick (16th overall), their two third round picks, and they swap 6th round picks with Chiefs. Let's look at it from the Chiefs' perspective. Jared Allen was the NFL sack leader last year, who has had consistent performance since his rookie season. He has never had injury concerns. He is also 26 years old. He was a huge supporter of Herm Edwards and a locker room leader. During his rookie season he had alcohol problems, for which he was treated, and has yet to re-offend. Many of his teammates have testified to his character change on his behalf. In return for this player, who could be the face of their D-line for 5 to 6 more seasons, the Chiefs get an additional 1rst round draft pick, two 3rd rounders, and move slightly up with their 6th round draft pick. About 30-40% of 1rst round draft picks fail to meet expectations, depending on position. Since they lose Allen, they need to replace him, so one of your first rounders immediately goes to the D-line. The other pick, who we have to assume will be an immediate starter so long as they pick right, will fix another hole... possibly QB. The two third rounders they gained will probably take 2-3 seasons to be good starters. Overall, you're looking at a scenario where they've hopefully fixed the franchise by 2011-2012. If they hadn't traded Jared Allen, he would be 29 or 30, probably still in his prime, but possibly on the decline. However, by 2013-2014, all those rookies they drafted will be at the end of their contracts. Do they sign them then? Or do they release them and rebuild again?
What Minnesota gets is a proven player who can fix a position that they were going to have to address in the draft anyways, except instead of gambling on a rookie, they get a guy who will come in next season and maybe even have double digit sacks. They keep their 2nd round pick, possibly to address QB or maybe WR, and suddenly this team has a very good chance of going toe-to-toe with Green Bay and winning the NFC North.
My main point is this. The trade could be a success for Kansas City if everything works according to plan. However, let's look at how they've done with their last first round draft picks. 2007: Dwayne Bowe. 2006: Tamba Hali. 2005: Derrick Johnson. 2004: No Pick. 2003: Larry Johnson. 2002: Ryan Sims. 2001: No Pick. 2000: Sylvester Morris. Although a lot of these picks look very good, one can't ignore the 2000 and 2001 picks that have basically amounted to busts. Also, further review of their drafting record shows not too much in the way of later round success.
I think that this is an ideal trade in an ideal world. Unfortunately, the NFL isn't an ideal world, and there's as much to be said for free agency as there is for building through the draft. Despite all the bad press you hear about teams being wrong to build through free agency, there's nothing wrong with picking up good players that have been released by previous teams. When you think about it, they're just as likely to be concealing injuries as guys coming out of college, and they're also just as likely to become busts. The safest bet of all, however, is re-hiring guys on your own team. The fact of the matter is that Jared Allen wanted to resign with the Chiefs, and they really just dropped the ball.
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