Blockbuster Draft Trade: Jared Allen to the Vikings

Firstly, the obvious has to be said. This was one of the dumbest trades of all time. It ranks right up there with Dallas sending two first round picks to the Seahawks for Joey Galloway, except the opposite. In return for Allen, the Vikings give up their first round pick (16th overall), their two third round picks, and they swap 6th round picks with Chiefs. 

Let's look at it from the Chiefs' perspective. Jared Allen was the NFL sack leader last year, who has had consistent performance since his rookie season. He has never had injury concerns. He is also 26 years old. He was a huge supporter of Herm Edwards and a locker room leader. During his rookie season he had alcohol problems, for which he was treated, and has yet to re-offend. Many of his teammates have testified to his character change on his behalf. In return for this player, who could be the face of their D-line for 5 to 6 more seasons, the Chiefs get an additional 1rst round draft pick, two 3rd rounders, and move slightly up with their 6th round draft pick. About 30-40% of 1rst round draft picks fail to meet expectations, depending on position. Since they lose Allen, they need to replace him, so one of your first rounders immediately goes to the D-line. The other pick, who we have to assume will be an immediate starter so long as they pick right, will fix another hole... possibly QB. The two third rounders they gained will probably take 2-3 seasons to be good starters. Overall, you're looking at a scenario where they've hopefully fixed the franchise by 2011-2012. If they hadn't traded Jared Allen, he would be 29 or 30, probably still in his prime, but possibly on the decline. However, by 2013-2014, all those rookies they drafted will be at the end of their contracts. Do they sign them then? Or do they release them and rebuild again? 

What Minnesota gets is a proven player who can fix a position that they were going to have to address in the draft anyways, except instead of gambling on a rookie, they get a guy who will come in next season and maybe even have double digit sacks. They keep their 2nd round pick, possibly to address QB or maybe WR, and suddenly this team has a very good chance of going toe-to-toe with Green Bay and winning the NFC North. 

My main point is this. The trade could be a success for Kansas City if everything works according to plan. However, let's look at how they've done with their last first round draft picks. 2007: Dwayne Bowe. 2006: Tamba Hali. 2005: Derrick Johnson. 2004: No Pick. 2003: Larry Johnson. 2002: Ryan Sims. 2001: No Pick. 2000: Sylvester Morris. Although a lot of these picks look very good, one can't ignore the 2000 and 2001 picks that have basically amounted to busts. Also, further review of their drafting record shows not too much in the way of later round success. 

I think that this is an ideal trade in an ideal world. Unfortunately, the NFL isn't an ideal world, and there's as much to be said for free agency as there is for building through the draft. Despite all the bad press you hear about teams being wrong to build through free agency, there's nothing wrong with picking up good players that have been released by previous teams. When you think about it, they're just as likely to be concealing injuries as guys coming out of college, and they're also just as likely to become busts. The safest bet of all, however, is re-hiring guys on your own team. The fact of the matter is that Jared Allen wanted to resign with the Chiefs, and they really just dropped the ball. 

Out at the One: David Pollack

Marvin Lewis announced several days ago that David Pollack intends to retire after a short three years in the NFL. 

It's unfortunate that his best years came in college. 

It's unfortunate that he played in only 16 games over two years.

It's unfortunate that all he was able to do amounted to 29 tackles, 4.5 sacks, and a pass deflection. 

And it all ended, September 17th, 2006, against the Bengals' in-state rival, the Cleveland Browns. 

But before all this, there was something else. There was the David Pollack who played so amazingly for Georgia. Over three years, he was a three time all-American and winner of the Chuck Bednarik Award, Lott Trophy, Lombardi Award, and Ted Hendricks Trophy (2003 and 2004). 

Let me bring you to a play. In 2002, Georgia played South Carolina. 14:07 left on the clock, 4th quarter. Georgia leads 3-0. In a key defensive series, Georgia has SC backed up on their own 6 yard-line. Wanting a big play to get some offensive momentum going, SC Quarterback Corey Jenkins is running four-receivers out of the shotgun, three stacked on the right. The snap is off, and Jenkins has it. His RB has taken three steps forward, ready to block. Right now the play is fluid, anything can happen. Left side receiver goes deep, on a fly route, but Jenkins is looking to his right. He rolls out of the pocket, looking for the open man. Two of the receivers have gone deep, but one has settled into a hole in the zone. He's facing Jenkins, waiting for the ball. 

Georgia is running a zone-coverage package, and Pollack is playing DE. At the snap, the line smashes hard to the right, and Pollack gets picked up by the SC Right Tackle. He slides off the block, running hard to get at Jenkins. The South Carolina Running Back attempts to block, but just bounces off him. While all that is happening, Jenkins sees his receiver. He stops, sets his feet winds up in his throwing motion.

And right then, Pollack and Jenkins' worlds collide. The pass is off, it's hurried, but for a second the cameras try to follow it. The stadium looks at the receiver, who has nothing in his hands. Suddenly, people notice the ball was knocked straight up. And Pollack came down with it. It was a 0-yard interception for a TD. 

Georgia won the game. But before it all settled into a commonly agreed on series of events, there was David Pollack, Corey Jenkins, and 20 other players, each trying to make a play. 

That play was one of many, but it may have made Pollack's career at Georgia. At the very least, it certainly stood out. It was a sad say in September when a very different play, a tackle of Browns RB Reuben Droughns, ended it. 

In the end, Pollack decided to retire because the risks of continuing to play were too great. He was lucky to stand back up again after that first neck fracture, and even fewer people stand back up after two. It was Pollack's decision to make, and I think he made the right one. He stands, however, like too many other players, as an example of young men whose careers were shortened by the harshness of the game. Good luck David, you will be missed. 

Draft Coverage

I thought I should link you guys to this excellent article on ESPN. Some of the patterns in there are fairly frightening, but most of them make sense. WRs as a gamble in the first round is a real no brainer.

That being said, everything in this article has to be taken with a grain of salt. There have been failures at basically every position. 

Seahawks Release RB Shaun Alexander

If this ends up being it for the guy, he'll get an out-at-the-one column. 

It was painfully obvious to anyone watching Alexander play this season that his time with the Seahawks was over. He was always a very quirky running back, with a highly unique, stutter-step style. I'd say him and Jamal Lewis have some of the most recognizable styles in the league. 

A lot of this has to do with his production. And I won't put the numbers here, suffice to say in most categories, Alexander has only done half of his numbers from the 2005 season over 2006-2007. 

A lot of this also has to do with what Alexander has been willing to do. He's not a good pass blocker, partially by choice, and doesn't really have excellent hands. He isn't always very physical, and really isn't very fast either. For some reason, something clicked in 2005. Steve Hutchinson really figured out how to play football, and FB Mack Strong was at the top of his game. Walter Jones was still in his prime, and Chris Spencer was just figuring out the C position. After this, Hutchinson left for Minnesota and Floyd Womack was shown to be hardly a great replacement. Neck injuries caught up with Strong, and his play declined. Most of all, until this season, the Seahawks really failed to get a proven O-line coach. 

Alexander was never one of those running backs who could carry a load. His performance was as much a result of the efforts of others than it was of his own. The last two seasons showed us exactly what that amounted to, and although somewhat respectable for a 30 year old player, it really wasn't enough. He could probably get a job as a contributor somewhere, and continue his career, but his tenure as a franchise back is over. 

Marvin Lewis Confirms Redskins' Trade Offer

So the Redskins offered their first round draft pick in this round and a conditional 3rd that could escalate to a first in the next draft if the Redskins and Bengals WR Chad Johnson (the object of their trade) reach certain performance levels. The Bengals have refused the offer.

Marvin Lewis got a lot of respect from me when he originally stood up to Johnson's trade demands by saying that if he wants to win playoff games he has to do it in Cincinnati. The guy signed a contract with the team and it is my opinion that he should have to play it out. It's tough to put a finger on the Redskins' trade though. Two first round draft picks would be nice, and would go a long way to helping the franchise if used right, but they should really only be accepted if the Bengals decide they are rebuilding, which is something they aren't prepared to do. If with Chad, they have a very capable passing attack. If Rudi Johnson bounces back, or they find a new starter at RB, their offense gets even better. Defensively, however, they need lots of help. Geathers is a good starter at DE, but they need some help at DT. If Odell is productive, and if Dhani Jones stays healthy, thats LB mostly taken care of. Dexter Jackson is a starter at S, but they need someone to play with him. CB is hopefully set with Deltha O'Neal, Leon Hall, and Jonathan Joseph. This team has potential, it just needs excellent coaching to get the most out of these players. 

The bottom line is this: letting Johnson leave town establishes this team as a loser. It is not good for the locker room and not good for the image of the team. Winning teams don't give in to player demands, they just don't resign them. If a losing team wants to be a winning team, it can't do that either.  

For the Second Time Since 1995...

The Cardinals are without a top-10 pick, as this story explains. When you combine all those supposed 'impact players' with the history of this franchise... it makes the draft seem like a lot less. What you have to remember is that Top-10 picks emphasize skill positions while ignoring others... frequently offensive line. Explaining why the Cardinals need to improve so much in that area. 

Bengals' MLB Odell Thurman to be Reinstated

A second round draft choice in 2005, and a candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year, he's been suspended for the last two years for alcohol-related misdemeanors. He has been reinstated by commissioner Goodell and is cleared to play next season. This is pretty much one of the first things to go right for the Cincinnati defense in a long time. His presence won't immediately fix problems, as they're getting (so long as he stayed in shape) what is basically a physically talented rookie. With the loss of Landon Johnson in free agency, however, they need to avoid another season where they're forced to put Robert Geathers in at LB because they have so few healthy bodies at linebacker. If he can't stay out of trouble, then he'll simply be cut and that will be the end of that.