Super Bowl Media Day

Hello again. Today is a pretty slow news day, so there probably won't be anymore posts.

Other than Romeo Crennel being signed to a two year extension (which he certainly deserves, as it's very hard to create a winning team with the kind of personnel this he's had), the only other event of note was Super Bowl Media Day yesterday. Players spouted platitudes and made jokes, Tom Brady recieved a proposal, and that's about it. We weren't invited. 

Your support is appreciated. Please tell your friends and plug us wherever you can. Our hope is to be part of the official Super Bowl Press group by... let's say 2015. 

Norm Chow Retrospective Con't

So, after many promises, I'm finally going to explain  my problems with Norm Chow's firing. Obviously, as the article I linked you to alludes to, it has to do with the Titans' second year QB, Vince Young. In his second year we saw him regress a little, throw a few more INTs and a few less TDs, and so Chow got the boot for it. I've already covered why this is a loss for the NFL in terms of diversity, however I think this was a huge mistake by the Titans and has more to do with their loss in the Wild Card round of the playoffs than a reasonable look at what was a fairly successful season. They didn't exactly surround Vince Young with weapons, their WRs being such superstars as David Givens (made better by the Patriots, not necessarily a skilled player), a 34 year old Eric Moulds who was cut from the Texans last year to be replaced by Kevin Walter (who?), Justin Gage (a Bears castoff), Brandon Williams (3rd Round Draft Pick), Roydell Williams (4th Round Draft Pick), and Mike Williams (a 1rst Round Draft Pick on his 3rd team in 3 years). Furthermore, they managed to lose their 1210 yard 7 TD RB in free agency (Travis Henry) during the last offseason in favor of starting LenDale White, a second round draft pick who got 1110 yards and 7 TD. I'm not trying to make a big point with those last stats, just trying to be fair. 

What I'm saying is that Young's regression isn't really due to any mistakes by Norm Chow. It's natural for players to have a bit of a tougher time in their second year because teams know how to gameplan against them now. Furthermore, they've hardly given him the weapons a young QB needs. A decent, but average, running game doesn't exactly allow the receivers with the skills that the Titans' receivers have get a lot separation. Young QBs need good WRs to suceed. Look at Alex Smith in SF and what he's done with Arnaz Battle, Antonio Bryant and Darrell Jackson (not too much). In compairison, look at Peyton Manning's early years in Indy with Marvin Harrison, or Daunte Culpepper's run in Minnesota with Kris Carter and Randy Moss. For a good recent example, look at Eli Manning. He's not an elite QB yet, but with Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey, and Amani Toomer he's been doing fairly well for himself. Ultimately what this will do is set back Vince Young's development by teaching him a new system and hurting his confidence, which is exactly what a young, big play QB like Young doesn't need. All this for no real gain. Vince Young might not have excellent numbers, but with him starting, the Titans have a good win/loss record (17 - 12 and 1 playoff loss). Changing the system on him doesn't make any sense. Teams need to appreciate the fact that rookie QBs take a lot longer than any other position to become great, and firing people won't make their progression any faster. 

New Redskins D-Coordinator: Greg Blache

Quick story on some of the Redskin hires. Don't know a whole lot about them to be honest. 

Late News Break

I apologize for not noting this sooner, but it appears Redskin Coordinators Al Saunders (offense) and Gregg Williams (defense) have been fired. 

I cannot even begin to describe how stupid this decision appears to be. 

You have a young QB who has just started to understand the offensive system, and changing it on him won't do his development any favors. Furthermore, Todd Collins'  performance during the Redskins' stretch run showed that Sanders had even developed some exceptional backups. Likewise can be said for Gregg Williams, and the fact that he had coached defenses that ranked in the NFL Top 10 the last 3 out of 4 seasons. Gibbs had laid some groundwork and gotten this franchise back on the right start. Although they are the oldest team by roster in the NFL, they are also a team that needs to make a run right now, before they lose all their players. Why throw this away when it's clear that they have the personnel to make it back to the playoffs next year? The dismantling of the coaching staff is appropriate when you're the Dolphins and coming off a 1 and 15 season, not when you got eliminated in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Back at the Out at the One column I did on Joe Gibbs I said that any coach that gets his job next year stands a good chance of making a realistic run at the playoffs in his first year. No longer. Snyder has done irreparable harm to this organization. If this team enjoys any success next year it will be because the players have managed to work past the roadblocks this owner puts in front of them. 

WILL get that Norm Chow story to you. I promise. Just more and more keeps coming up. 

Shoutout to My Cousin

I have a cousin named Andrew. I remember back in week 16 or 17 he and his family were over at my house for a Christmas dinner and we were talking about different teams' playoff chances. I knew that the Saints were pretty much done, and Andrew was telling me that the Giants were just about done too because they were probably just going to pull another one and out. I told him that the best teams were those that made the playoffs regularly. I talked a bit about how Coughlin should get an extension for regularly getting his team to the playoffs, instead of getting fired, and a lot of people should give Eli more chances since he's young and can still develop. The best teams are those that give themselves the most frequent chances to win. A team that blows everything on one run can easily be derailed by a key injury or a bad game. Teams that build themselves on solid players, committed to staying with the team and playing hard year in and year out produce frequent playoff runs. Although they may lose in the playoffs frequently, it makes the chance of actually advancing to the Super Bowl higher. You throw yourselves at a wall enough times and you'll eventually either break it down or fall to the other side. The Colts are exactly the same way. They went to the playoffs year in and year out, eventually getting the right breaks and winning the big game. Same for the 2000 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

So, to all you Giants fans out there, don't give up hope. Anything can happen. 

If You're Interested...

You can save 5% off the price of the yet to be released book: 19 - 0: The Historic Championship Season of New England's Unbeatable Patriots

I'd like to say this is jumping the gun, but I guess it's a competitive business. 

My all time favorite is how the NFL prints hats for both teams saying they won the Super Bowl, yet have to burn one set when the game ends. A couple always escape and become some pretty valuable memorabilia. 

To any loyal readers in Arizona, try to pick me up a Giants hat. Win or lose. 

NFL Game to be Played in London in 2008? Saints-Chargers

You heard it here first. I honestly do not quite understand what they're doing with this. NFL Europa failed, so why are we still staging games in England? It destroys the players' practice time and their scheduling near the mid-point of the season, and I am honestly sorry that they're dragging the Saints into this. Although I try to be as objective as possible, I feel in the interests of full disclosure, I should tell you I'm a Saints fan. Back to the point at hand though, why London? Canada is much closer, and they might have a team in Toronto (the Bills) soon. Why not test the possibility of an expansion team in the east coast? Or the prairies, where the CFL is (comparatively) huge? Mexico City is also an option, although finding appropriate stadiums and facilities is difficult. I think that the NFL should be looking at neighboring countries closer to home before sending their players overseas to a spot where the possibility of real expansion has been already put on hold for the foreseeable future. Okay. I'm going to finish to Norm Chow story and bring it to you as soon as possible. 

Team Headquarters in Glendale

Don't have a whole lot to add to this, but I thought it was very interesting. The idea that the Patriots would house themselves, especially given Belichick's penchant for privacy, right downtown doesn't seem logical, but it might not have been him who made the arrangements. Then again, the Patriots certainly have the advantage in terms of being able to avoid team distractions. They have a much more cohesive nature than the Giants, even though that team has made strides in that area, and dedicated teammates are always better at keeping their own in line than an angry coach like Coughlin. We'll keep tabs on how this develops. 

Super Bowl Coverage

Well, it's the monday before the big game so it's fitting that we begin our Super Bowl coverage. While other, more financially endowed news groups are reporting to you from Glendale proper, I believe that the perspective offered to us from our location in London, Ontario will enable us to filter out most of the time-wasting nonsense emanating from Arizona right now and just bring you the 2 or 3 real stories that might emerge over the coming days. As a perfect example of this, do any of the other four people in the world who get the NFL Network think that their promo showing the forging (!!) of the Lombardi Trophy think it was just a little bit dumb? 

So here it is. First Super Bowl News Story. We'll be having our special correspondents update you on it later today:

As of this afternoon, both teams will be in Glendale. I recently saw Bill Belichick checking in with us to say that their flight down was great.

That is all. 

We'll finish the story on Norm Chow later this week, so please check back. 

Your support is appreciated. 

Text Issues

I have no idea why the spacing between my lines is changing during posts. I'm just using Google Blogger to put these in, nothing special at all. If anyone has any idea about what is going on, please put a helpful hint on the comment board. 

Norm Chow Retrospective

I will fill in this space tomorrow or the day after. For now, familiarize yourself with this story. 

It's worth noting that Chow was one of the only people in football of Asian descent. Dat Nguyen, Assistant Linebackers coach of the Dallas Cowboys, former NFL linebacker, and first Vietnamese-American to play in the NFL is, to my knowledge, the only other. Nguyen retired from his playing career in 2006, after 7 years in the NFL, due to a neck injury. If anybody knows somebody I've overlooked, please put it on the comment board.  

Although the NFL has rules, and rightfully so, about maintaining racial diversity among coaching staffs, too frequently this is taken to mean equality between Caucasian and African-American hires. I'm not suggesting race has anything to do with Norm Chow's firing, and I will elaborate on the real reasons later, but it should be recognized that his removal from the Titans coaching staff represents a great loss for the NFL, and one that should be recognized. Hopefully he lands on his feet among one of the other 31 teams or back in the college coaching ranks. 

Coffin Corner Kick Resumes

Okay. So we're back online and doing our best to catch up during what is perhaps the busiest part of the football season. To organize my thoughts, I'll be using this post to keep up with all the storylines I've missed. After this is finished I'll maybe write some posts on the larger ones or the ones I know most about... I'm sure you get it.  

In No Particular Order:

1. Baltimore hires Jim Harbaugh as Head Coach. Jason Garrett had declined the position.
2. Giants and Patriots are meeting in Arizona for a little game called the Superbowl.
3. Tony Sparano is Miami's New Head Coach.
4. Jason Garrett, the man everyone is talking about, is not a Head Coach. 
5. Consolation columns for the Cowboys abound. 
6. Deion Branch is getting major knee surgery. 
7. Norm Chow, offensive coordinator for the Titans was fired by phone.
8. Mike Zimmer is the new captain of the sinking ship that is the Bengals Defense. I'm going to always maintain that Marvin Lewis, hired as a defensive head coach, is ultimately responsible for the failure of this unit. Just because the offense performs doesn't mean he's a good coach either. Any team with Palmer, Johnson and Houshmanzadeh (spelled without looking it up) can score. That team will not win until Lewis is out of there. 
9. Vince Young is possibly a bust. (In no way do I agree with this, just giving some perspectives.) 
10. Wade Phillips might be this season's Marty Schottenheimer (but not really, at least if Jerry Jones has one brain cell thinking about his team instead of vengeance for the playoff loss).
11. Holmgren won't actually retire. 
12. Eddie Murphy is prescient. 
13. I'm voting this man for "Mustache of the Century." As for the story... I dunno. I guess if you feel strongly about seeing Lawrence Tynes? His two previous misses lead me to believe that perhaps it was Eli Manning's game, and cutting to him was the right decision.
14. I think this is how everyone outside of the Boston area feels.  
15. Brady is questionable for the Super Bowl. 
16. The Dallas Cowboys coaching staff has moved to Miami. 
17. Tony Dungy will be leading his team from Tampa this year. Following the example of the most successful coaches, such as Joe Gibbs, who used to sleep in his office (and famously woke up one morning, wished a "Happy New Years" and said: "Is it January already?"), I don't see this leading to a lot of success here. Despite the extreme example already provided, it's no secret that being a successful Head Coach is one of the most demanding jobs on the planet. Not being in the same city as your team is probably not a recipe for success. 
18. Giant Upset? Or Patriot Perfection? History offers two very different stories. 
19. In case you get your football info from other places (in addition to here, of course) and feel inundated by coverage about Brady's boot, this man has a cure for what ails you. 
20. Something to consider if you're following the Redskins Head Coach hunt. 
21. Don't pay attention to the rankings, but read this so that you can impress your friends when... let's say... Stephen Spach... makes some improbable catch and you can pretend to recognize him. 

Well, 21 items and three days of research later, I feel all caught up. I hope you are too. At this point I hope you realize that line about "busiest part of the football season" was just a little bit of sarcasm, excessive coverage of Brady's boot (which we have mostly ignored) abounds. My time apart from you scared me as well, but don't worry. We're together again. I'll be with you in the coming week with something approximating regular updates. Of course, Superbowl picks and a live blogging experience will follow. I'd like to remind you that we are still at 100% for publicly called picks, although we've only done three games. 

In what is possibly my first and only advice to my gambling audience, bet on the Patriots to win, but I will eat my hat if they cover the spread. 

Apologies from the Management

Valued Patrons,

We regret our absence over the last weeks. Our computer was broken and has since been repaired. We are very regretful for being unable to experience the Conference Championship Round of playoffs with you, but rest assured that we will resume our frenetic blogging pace as the Superbowl grows nearer. If you'll excuse me for the moment, I'm going to read ESPN for the next couple of hours to catch up with what I've missed in the eternity we've been apart. Updates to follow tomorrow. 

How to Beat the Patriots

Just thought you might want to read this. Norv Turner, if you're out there, I'm talking to you.

Monday Morning Ball Spot: 'He's Our Quarterback' Edition

Oh man. That's kind of an unfortunate title. Thank you for joining us this week for Coffin Corner Kick's first Monday morning recap after the weekend's action. Already a week old, I feel myself growing closer to each and every one of you. We've seen the highs of Norv Turner shutting up a whole lot of people by finally bringing the Chargers further in the playoffs than Marty Schottenheimer did, and the lows of Terrell Owens tearfully proclaiming at the Giants-Cowboys post-game news conference that Tony Romo is "our quarterback" and that blaming him is "unfair" because "we lost as a team." I'll be honest, that's a pretty marked departure from "looks like a rat, smells like a rat..." days, but it is what it is. The upside of all this is that Coffin Corner is 3 for 3 in calling game action. If this continues, I may start placing vast sums of money on Pro-Line. I wonder what the spread was on the Giants-Cowboys game anyways. Many apologies to San Diego and Indianapolis fans. Due to time constraints (until you guys start donating money I have to do things to support myself) I was unable to prepare a Coin Toss section for your game. The outcome was an unfortunate way to close out the RCA Dome, but it is what it is.

I promise I will get to all the matchups by this weekend, as there are only two. For those of you living under a rock, the Giants are headed up to Lambeau to play the Packers for the NFC Title and San Diego is headed to Foxboro to beat the now 17 - 0 Patriots.

I guess the biggest shocker of the weekend was for sure the Giants sticking it to the Cowboys. I can't say there's anything I enjoyed more than Jerry Jones' face at the end of that. He can say all he wants about how Wade Phillips will be his Head Coach next year, and that might even be true, but this is a man who was convinced that his team was destined for the Superbowl this year. He's a competitor, and someone is going to get blamed for this. Special recognition should go to the Giants' secondary. They lost both starters and still managed to keep Witten, Glenn and Owens under control. That's compared to the shameful effort by the Cowboys. If I'd have picking anything to beat them, it would have been Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Instead, Amani Toomer and Eli Manning? Those are not names you want to be sticking it to you.

San Diego beating Indianapolis was interesting. Their problem is much like that of the Giants. They took a lot of injuries in that game and if players don't get healthy soon then they'll be devoured by the Patriots. I felt San Diego's defense was great though, lots of pressure and still good coverage, and I think that gives them some hope of beating the Patriots. Marvin Harrison did not look very sharp at times and I think it cost them.

The Seahawks-Packers was our live blog of the weekend, so for game thoughts I'd turn you to there.

The Patriots and Jaguars was the game I thought it would be. Both teams defenses played well, and the Jaguars stuck with the Patriots for a little while. What it always seems to come down to is that eventually you can't match the Patriots point for point. At one point the Pats got a touchdown to take the lead, and Jacksonville got a field goal on their next possession, right then it was over. The Jaguars needed an impact WR and it's something they should look into getting because with it they might have had a much better chance. They were using Maurice Jones Drew as that kind of guy sometimes, which isn't very surprising.

Anyways, I have to dash off to English class. Please join me later in the week for two Coin Toss Sections, our live blog this weekend, any relevant Out at the One sections, and irregular updates on anything I think you should know about.

That's a Wrap from Lambeau

Well, Greg Jennings finished with less yards than I thought he would (6 Rec. for 71 yards and 2 TD), and Ryan Grant was a much bigger factor than I thought, but Atari Bigby sure showed up. Tauscher did a great job against Kerney, especially in the run game though, and kept Brett Favre on his feet. The Seahawks offense was mostly non-existent, especially with coverage provided by Harris and Woodson. I guess the best part of this is that I'm 100% for publicly predicting game outcomes. I'll be briefly finishing up our Jags-Pats coverage before enjoying the game and my dinner in peace. Thank you very much for joining us today, and I hope you have a pleasant weekend.

Seahawks Have Left The Building

The team has checked out and is failing to even end this game with a small amount of dignity. This team was a lot better than it played today, and I don't think that's just the snow. These players looked fairly uninspired for the entire last half of the game and I think somebody should have to answer for that. It's hard to see a coach like Holmgren go out with a loss like this, and maybe it will convince him to come back for another season. Then again, he already has his ring, so maybe it's fitting that he ends his career on his real homefield.

For those of you who don't know, Holmgren won a Super Bowl with Packers back in 1997.

Grant's Career Day

I think that that last counter play showed a lot about what was wrong with that day. The Packers cleared the line with amazing ease and each lineman just grabbed a Seahawk and pushed. The idea that not a single man could break through shows a deep weakness on the part of this team and something that will continue to haunt them until they get a run stopping type D-Lineman. It's obvious that the Seahawks are willing to just give the Packers a license to kill the last 9 minutes, this new possession for the Seahawks notwithstanding. I can't imagine how tough this is for a guy like Matt Hasselbeck, who is such a competitor, to lose twice in the playoffs at his old home field.

I'd like any sentimental fans to keep in mind that this is probably the last game we'll see Mike Holmgren coach. You heard it here first. It's an unfortunate thing to happen since, despite the holes in their team, they've been a consistent playoff contender and a new Head Coach will have to work hard to fill some pretty large shoes. Out at One column to come when this retirement becomes official.

Fourth and Two for Seattle

Big Fourth down for Seattle here... and they decide the punt. I've got to question that decision. Down by three scores and close to 12 minutes left.... one score every four minutes is still pretty tight. Giving this away is like giving away a bit less than two minutes of that time, and that assumes they can finally stop Ryan Grant. Things aren't that great for the blue and green right now, but not playing to win isn't helping anybody.

Snow Will Be 12th Man

If common sense dictates and the Browns-Bills game of (I believe) week 14 is proof, snow slows down offenses quite a bit. It makes running and catching difficult, and the defense has to sometimes do very little to make teams go 3 and out. If the game was snowy like this at the kickoff it would be an even field, but with a two touchdown advantage the Packers won't have to do a whole lot to keep their lead.

As a side note, Ryan Grant has just made me eat my words by showing me that running in snow is indeed possible, and perhaps even preferable.

Packers DTs Tackling Well

The difference between these two defenses, even though the Seahawks seem to have the Packers on the run on this drive, is that the Packer DTs are making a lot of tackles. They're pushing around the Seahawk O-Line a little and getting some penetration against both the pass and the run. It's my belief that they're the primary reason the Seahawks are settling for field goals when the Packers are coming away with touchdowns.

Great Job by Ted Thompson

It's difficult to remember, but it was only last season that the Pack finished 7-9 and looked to be stuck underneath the Chicago Bears for the next three or four season. They had no proven running back, few proven WRs outside of Donald Driver, and a QB thinking about retirement. Instead we have the team playing the divisional championship round in Lambeau. Brett Favre is thinking about coming back for another year, the WRs call themselves the 'fabulous five,' and Ryan Grant looks to be the answer at RB for a few seasons. His real test will be how he performs against teams next season when they start to gameplan against him, but that's months away. Right now, fans are excited, the players are happy, and the people who built this team deserve a big congratulations.

Huge Offensive Drive by Packers

The Packers are just gashing the Seahawks over and over again. I think this defense is running out of answers, they're having trouble covering the middle, having trouble against the run, having trouble bringing pressure... The best coaches are the ones that make good adjustments at halftime and McCarthy just showed he's one of those coaches. I think the Seahawks defense is in real danger of just giving up and shutting down at this point. They need some big plays to get some energy back on this field, because otherwise it looks like they're just going through the motions. Look at the catch by Donald Driver against Trufant. Trufant slipped a little, but he's the kind of corner that shouldn't let anyone get away with that throw.

Matt Hasselbeck to Nate Burleson Dropped

Matt Hasselbeck just made a bad read by throwing deep to Nate Burleson against Al Harris. His team really needed that 3rd down conversion and he threw deep to his third or fourth receiver against Green Bay's All-Pro corner. Hasselbeck is getting angry, and that's a good thing because he can be dangerous when he gets gutsy, but he can also make bad reads and if he throws balls up against corners like Al Harris and Charles Woodson, then you can expect more than pass deflections.

Ryan Grant

As this last drive shows, the Seahawks are going to have to slow down Ryan Grant, who already has something like 80 yards, if they want to win this game. He gets to the linebackers too often and Defensive Tackles need to step up and tackle him more frequently at the line.

On that last long miss by Brett Favre Julian Peterson and Patrick Kerney collapsed the pocket on their side but Favre had room to step up because there was no pressure from the DTs. I think that so much of this game is hinging on the performance of the Seahawk DTs, and they just aren't stepping up. It may be something Seahawks want to address in the offseason or perhaps the draft. Former picks like Marcus Tubbs (now on IR) haven't exactly worked out... but they have to try again because it's clear that it's a big hole in their defense.

Roughing the Kicker

Big penalty on the Packers, giving the Seahawks a new set of downs.

On a Hasselbeck pass to Burleson we had a showcase of exactly how NOT to tackle, courtesy of the Green Bay Secondary.

Atari Bigby just had another pass deflection on Marcus Pollard.

Quiet game from Kampman so far, and for that we can probably thank the Seattle RT, Locklear.

Our Mistake

We regret to inform you that the Seahawk player who fumbled before the last Packers drive was in fact TE Marcus Pollard.

Atari Bigby just had a huge hit on the REAL Bobby Engram.

End of First Quarter

The Seahawks tried to get a play off before the end of the quarter, but the clock ran out on them. After taking a key early lead, the Packers stormed right back. I'll be interested to see how the Seahawks respond on their next drive.

And that question was answered pretty quickly... Seahawks fumble.

I'd like to point out the presence of our BPYNHO Atari Bigby on that last play. He was covering Engram and allowed the catch, but a big strip will give the Packers a chance to take the lead.

Touchdown by Ryan Grant

The one-yard TD run by Ryan Grant was almost a foregone conclusion. Both of these teams' strengths are at the edges of their D-Line and smart, quick linebackers, not powerful run stoppers. In this kind of weather, the running game is becoming very important indeed. I'll be interested to see how the Seahawks RBs respond to Grant's performance.

Trufant Tackles Jennings

You'll notice on that last play that Greg Jennings caught a short reception and was stopped cold by Marcus Trufant. That's the kind of tackling the Seahawks will need to prevent big yard after catch receptions by the Packers WR group.

This good stop was quickly followed by a 20 yard run by Ryan Grant.

Lambeau sounds pretty worked up.

Controversial Call on the Bubba Franks Reception

My roommate (big Packers fan) is making a big stink about a bad ball spot by the officials for a possible first down.

Official review is conceeding a respot and a remeasure, but they moved the ball very little. I'm going to say that Bubba Franks' knees were down before his arm were extended.

Key Packers first down as a official, after review, give the Packers the first down.

Coffin Corner Game Days RETURNS

Hello fans. After a late start during which I missed 10 minutes and 3 Touchdowns, we're here, to bring you latest in miscellaneous information for you true addicts who can't watch a game without their laptops.

Already we're hearing about how the wet conditions are throwing off the Seattle pass rush. Patrick Kerney is the 'Hawks biggest weapon against Brett Farve, a slow day for him means a much harder game for the Seattle secondary.

Rain Delay

Sorry guy, have to go house hunting. Coffin Corner Game Days are postponed until next week. Enjoy the game without me.

Coffin Corner Game Days

The third of our now classic regular features will be Coffin Corner Game Days or 'Watchin' N Bloggin' editions.' Time permitting, I hope to live blog while watching at least one game weekly, hopefully to point out anything interesting I see, gloat over or possibly make excuses for my terrible Coin Toss predictions, and maybe, if you guys are interested, have a little bit of dialogue on the comment boards. I'll be doing this (hopefully, so long as my friends agree to postpone house hunting for another day) during the Seakhawks - Packers game this afternoon.

Tony Dungy's Last Run?

Bob Kravitz thinks so.

Coin Toss: Jaguars - Patriots

For those of you keeping track, we're still spot on with all our predictions. I doubt you'll be checking in on this blog on gameday, but a big thank you to any loyal readers who are. This is the third edition of coin toss and we'd like to welcome you here today. I'm sure you're all familiar with the format at this point, so we'll jump right into this. The matchup is between the team everybody loves to hate (outside the New England area) and the weekly rotating title of 'everyone's favorite team,' namely the one tasked with taking the Patriots down.

For those of you looking past all the soon-to-be wrong pundits, Vegas has the Jaguars with +13, which means that if you bet on them and they lose by 13 points, you still win. That's pretty ridiculous odds, in that a team could lose by two scores and still be a winner. Vegas might actually lose a bit of money on that one, unfortunately, the Jaguars are going to lose as well.

I don't think the Patriots are invincible, but I also don't see a team with so many holes on offense and so many injured starters on defense beating them at home in their first playoff game after a bye week. It was the Eagles who first showed a crack in the armor, and very few people except, and I'll give immense credit to him for this, Brandon Lang, who in his weekly challenge with Matt Mosley of ESPN Hashmarks fame, predicted that the Eagles would, in fact, beat the Patriots. The Ravens came even closer, and the Giants put on a good show for three quarters, but I'll always see the Eagles as the favorites just because of the shock value that game had. When you think about it, there are a few similarities between the two teams, which I think is why a lot of people are picking the Jaguars over the Patriots.

Both have really hard blitzing defenses, the Eagles' led by Defensive Coordinator Jim Johnson and the Jaguars with their Head Coach and smashmouth football fan, Jack Del Rio. So, assuming that the Eagles' formula, imitated by the Ravens and, to some extent, the Giants, leads to success against the Patriots. It consists of a few hallmarks:
1) Pressure to flush Tom Brady out of the pocket
2) Doubling Randy Moss with a safety when Wes Welker is not on the field, otherwise, safety coverage on Wes Welker
3) Frequent Nickel blitz packages when facing multiple wide receivers
4) Less emphasis on run stopping

Let's look a the D-Line first. The Eagles have Broderick Bunkley, Mike Patterson, and Montae Reagor at DT (combined 100 TCKL 9 SCK). At DE they've got Juqua Thomas, Jevon Kearse, Trent Cole, and Darren Howard (129 TCKLE 22 SCK). Compare that to the Jaguars' DTs John Henderson, Grady Jackson, Derek Landri, and Rob Meier (76 TCKL, 7 SCK) and DEs Reggie Hayward, Bobby McCray, Jeremy Mincey, and Paul Spicr (80 TCKLE, 15.0 SCK).

The Linebacking group tells a very similar story as well. The Eagles have Omar Gaither, Pago Togafau, Stewart Bradley, Takeo Spikes, Chris Gocong, and Akeem Jordan (225 TCKL, 2 SCK, 1 INT). The Jaguars have Justin Durant, Clint Ingram, Brian Iwuh, Shantee Orr, Mike Peterson. and Daryl Smith (267 TCKL, 6 SCK, 3 INT).

Overall, both of these teams' front seven are very active at getting after the QB. What should be taken into account is that the Jags have Marcus Stroud (22 TCKL, 3 SCK) on IR, so his backups haven't had as large an opportunity to build stats. Both teams also have fairly effective coverage teams, as these stats will demonstrate:

Jaguars' CBs, SSs, and FSs: Rashean Mathis, Aaron Glenn, Brian Williams, Scott Starks, Terry Cousin, Reggie Nelson, Jamaal Fudge, Sammy Knight, Chad Nkang, Lamont Thompson.
401 TCKL, 35 PDef, 18 INT

Eagles' CBs, SSs and FSs: Sheldon Brown, Lito Sheppard, William James, Joselio Hanson, Therrian Fontenot, Sean Considine, Marcus Paschal, Quintin Mikell, Brian Dawkins
318 TCKL, 33 PDef, 9 INT

Again, the Jaguars, despite their lack of real big name players, seem to have the upper hand in terms of performance. Although all of this goes a long way to explaining why they are viewed as capable of making a very close game, the Pats are still going to take it. The reason here is simply because of the style of the Jaguars and how Jack Del Rio likes to play. He establishes the run and stops the run. Unfortunately, the Pats play with the pass and do their best stopping the run. They have older, veteran, crafty, and slow linebackers. These guys struggle in coverage, on the crossing routes as Philly showed us, but they do not struggle at stopping the run. Despite all the talk about the skill of the Jaguars RBs, Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor, the Patriot LBs Mike Vrabel, Junior Seau, Adalius Thomas, and Teddy Bruschi will have something to say about it. As will Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, and Vince Wilfork. If you beat New England you have to beat them through the pass, and that is not the Jaguars' strong suit. New England is going to cruise through this one with a lot more ease than people think and I don't think you can even start talking upset until at least the next round of the playoffs.

Javon Walker

So at this point I think everyone agrees that the Broncos need to do something to fix the franchise. Although they remained in the playoff hunt longer than some teams, this is the first time under Mike Shanahan that the Broncos have missed the playoffs two years in a row. Their typical strength, a solid defense, disappeared this season. What was supposed to be a rebuilding year for their primary weakness, a weak Defensive Line (the Brown-cos, for those in the know), was a complete failure. Although I would question the original wisdom of bringing in Sam Adams, since he could have only been a two or three year fix, he was released before seasons end. Elvis Dumervil is quietly filling in where so many other 4th round draft picks have succeeded (Jared Allen, Alex Brown, Mark Anderson), as a monster pass rusher (39 TCKL, 12.5 SCK). Marcus Thomas, their supposed impact rookie (despite being drafted late, a fall they attributed to personality issues) managed 19 tackles and an interception over 16 games. More promisingly, Tim Crowder, a rookie DE, had 16 tackles and 4 sacks over 13 games, but once again, run stopping is the priority.

This team is hemorrhaging O-Linemen at an alarming rate. It is, with the exception of that position, one of the youngest teams in football. However, they just lost franchise LT Matt Lepsis to retirement and I can't imagine that Tom Nalen is far behind (maybe one more season). The O-Line's ability to make a running game out of anyone (Selvin Young, Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns) is, in my opinion, diminishing a little. I also question how many veterans you can lose before you also lose the ability to just plug guys in and get monster performances from them. Montrae Holland and Ben Hamilton spring to mind. Despite this, they're a remarkably solid team, certainly capable of making a playoff push next year. Address the O-Line in the draft and Free Agency, and address the D-Line by getting rid of your disgruntled WR.

Javon Walker wants to be THE guy for a franchise. With the emergence of Brandon Marshall, he feels like Denver is no longer the place for him. He was injured this season and had very poor numbers, however he had a 1000 yard 8 TD season in 2006. Looking at his stats he is, remarkably for someone with such a high apparent ego, somewhat injury prone and lacklustre. Nonetheless, I think that he has potential. There is a team, and their name is the Jacksonville Jaguars, who desperately need an impact WR. This team also has a superfluous number of talented D-Line players. For anyone who saw the Jacksonville-Pittsburgh wildcard game, I think you may have noticed a certain rookie DT named Derek Landri. The duo of John Henderson and Marcus Stroud is getting older and they're no longer worth really keeping together in my opinion. They are still excellent players, just not as dominant as they used to be. Nonetheless, a guy like Stroud or Henderson has at least 5 or 6 productive, but not All-Pro, seasons left in him. Although I am not paid to make these decisions and I'm sure there are people much smarter than me who know why this is not a good idea... both franchises are flush with cap room and can take the hit, and it addresses two positions that two young and building teams need. The players on both sides were once big, but now aging, and each team has younger replacements. Let each depart to be the number 1 guy for another franchise and thus fix the position for at least 2 or 3 more seasons so that more pressing needs can be dealt with, all the while regularly making the playoffs and keeping the fanbase happy.

Coin Toss: Giants - Cowboys Edition

For those of you who haven't seen these photos pasted all over ESPN and (if you're among the lucky group that gets it) the NFL Network, it shows Tony Romo and Jessica Simpson on a weekend getaway to Mexico that occurred during the Cowboys bye week. The way most people are talking, it would seem that this matters more than the other 21 starters on the field, but I guess they know more than I do. Despite the brou-ha-ha (I've always wanted to use that word), I'm going to pretend that everybody is going to be reasonably ready to go (injuries not included) and nobody ate a bucket of fried chicken before the game that might give them greasy hands... Tony Romo... Anyways. On with the Coin Toss.

I think I'm going to go with the Giants on this one. Higher seeded teams lose at home sometimes. It happens. It happens every year. If I picked the higher seeded team for all my matchups, I'd probably get more right than wrong... but where's the fun in that. This Giants team was the surprise of the season. They're around every year. There's only two rules about them:
1) Nobody thinks they'll amount to anything at the beginning of the season
2) Nobody predicts them as being the "surprise." (see this year's 49ers team)

The Giants lose their star running back to retirement, they have a QB with a spotty record who is constantly questioned. What seemed like a huge black hole at the RB position (Reuben Droughns, a unpolished Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward (??? Hands up if you knew who this guy was before this season)) has turned into what I once heard referred to as a "three-headed monster." Now, if Reuben Droughns is one of those heads, then they aren't exactly all scary monster: lion, dragon, etc. But even one of the Chimera's three heads was a goat's... so that's Reuben Droughns. Joking aside, these guys have each found a niche: Droughns as a goal line situation back, Jacobs as the workhorse and Ward as the change of pace. The Giants will be without Ward, as he's on IR, but that's still a decent one-two punch. And Ahmad Bradshaw is filling in nicely. Furthermore, Eli Manning has finally won 'the big game' (his first postseason win). If doing that, except in the Super Bowl, briefly slew all of Peyton Manning's demons, at least until the explosion of Tom Brady this season, then surely this win by the younger Manning makes him at least a credible QB.

This is combined with what I think is a fairly weak Dallas secondary. The front seven is pretty scary. They've got some big playmakers (DeMarcus Ware), some emerging talent (Jay Ratliffe, Anthony Spears), and some complete unknowns that pile up monster stats (Greg Ellis). Unfortunately, all the pressure these guys can put on leaves corners on an island against the WR they're matched up with, and I wouldn't look for too much help from the safeties Ken Hamlin and Roy Williams. Williams' coverage skills have always been kind of suspect, his skill laying more in hitting the receiver once he has the ball... and Hamlin was released from the Seahawks just last season because he was part of a secondary team that let up too many big plays. Anthony Henry and Terrance Newman will have to be at the top of their games, and unfortunately they have had a poor streak of games recently. The Giants' WRs are crafty veterans (Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burress) who are sure to get away with a couple big plays. What I think the game breaker here is going to be is performance of rookie TE Kevin Boss, replacing Jeremy Shockey, who is on IR. Eli Manning is still a developing QB, and he needs outlets like a good TE who he can throw to if he gets in trouble. Kevin Boss will have to prove he's a threat that needs safety coverage by making big plays when he's just covered by an LB.

In terms of the Dallas offense against the Giants defense, I see a lot of the game coming down to the effectiveness of the Dallas offensive tackles. Jason Witten, the Dallas TE, has managed a massive 1145 yards on the season, largely by taking advantage of the linebackers assigned to cover him. The reason few teams give him safety coverage is because they need to bracket T.O. Where this matchup gets INCREDIBLY interesting is the new distribution of players the presence of Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora cause. These players had, between them, a whopping 22 sacks on the season. They are dangerous pass rushers. T.O. probably requires Gibril Wilson (Giants SS) and Sam Madison (Giants CB) to work together and cover him on most snaps. This would usually leave Jason Witten covered by somebody like Mathias Kiwanuka (Giants OLB). Despite Kiwanuka's athleticism, that is a fairly favorable matchup for Tony Romo, since there would be very little safety help on the coverage. Unfortunately, the Giants have a pair of excellent DEs. Although Flozell Adams (Cowboys LT) would certainly be able to neutralize one of them on most plays, I wouldn't count on Marc Colombo (RT) to consistently handle the other. Although amazingly strong, he does not yet have the technique to reliably neutralize Strahan or Umenyiora. It is possible to divert the RG Leonard Davis, an excellent player in his own right, to help, that would leave Dallas vulnerable to sacks from LBs or DTs. It is therefore more likely that Witten, an excellent blocker, will be called in to help on at least some snaps. This is, however, a waste of his abilities. How Jason Garrett, Cowboys Offensive Coordinator, decides to deal with Strahan and Umenyiora should be watched very closely, as it will have a lot to do with how the game finishes.

Outcome: Giants Win 24 - 21

Offensive Stud: Eli Manning. This is the gamble of a lifetime, but I think that now, in the hardest game of his life, is the time that all the pressure finally turns what a lot of people thought was just a lump of coal into a diamond. He's focusing a lot better and, believe it or not, learns from his mistakes. He looked almost lost against the Cowboys in their last regular season game, but I think he's played this group enough that he has an idea as to where to go with the ball now. I'm not saying he'll produce fireworks. Watch for checkdown passes and careful QB play. But as long as he doesn't spectacularly implode like he did against Minnesota, this Giants team has a pretty good shot of getting out of Dallas with a win.

Defensive Stud: Michael Strahan, who I expect will respond to the pressure of the playoffs and harass Tony Romo quite a bit.

Key Matchup: Jason Witten. If he's in protection or catching passes will have a lot to do with the final outcome of this game. I have no doubt that he could take a lot of pressure off Tony Romo if he stays back to pass block, but without him on the field to distract from an injured T.O. and a rusty Terry Glenn, I question whether what seems like a normally stacked Dallas recieving group will struggle against the Giants' defense. If does, it will come down on Marion Barber and Julius Jones to run Dallas to daylight.

BPYNHO: Kevin Boss. The rookie TE will be looked at as a possible outlet if Manning gets pressured, and he'll need to come up with some big catches to take double coverage away from Plaxico Burress.

Colts vs. Chargers, Jags vs. Pats

So, if you haven't noticed, there is a lot of talk about how the Cowboys and Patriots will lose this weekend. I'm not making any predictions yet, Coin Toss section to come on both games, but it seems to me like the Colts are once again being ignored. All season long everyone picked the Colts over the Patriots in most power rankings because they were the defending champs. When the Pats finally beat them, people changed. But it seems like things have gone back. I just think people don't know how to handle a team as perfect as the Pats have been (I saw the Eagles and Ravens games, so don't yell at me about those). Columnists seem to be constantly expecting an upset so it's like that they're such a sure thing that they've become the underdog. On a quick balance of positions, it's difficult to see the Colts as having a much easier game ahead of them than the Pats do. For instance:

Jags vs. Bolts
QB: David Garrard vs. Phillip Rivers
RB: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Maurice Drew-Jones/Fred Taylor
WR: Chris Chambers vs. Reggie Williams
TE: Antonio Gates vs. Marcedes Lewis
CB: Antonio Cromartie vs. Rashean Mathis
FS: Marlon McCree vs. Reggie Nelson
C: Nick Hardwick vs. Brad Meester
LT: Marcus McNeil vs. Khalif Barnes
DT: Jamaal Williams vs. Marcus Stroud/John Henderson
MLB: Brandon Siler vs. Mike Peterson
OLB: Shaun Merriman vs. Daryl Smith

I mean, it's not often a huge difference, but I'd give advantage to the Chargers. And between the Pats and Colts, although it's close, wouldn't you say the Chargers have at least a slightly easier game? It just seems to me that because Peyton Manning won a Super Bowl, he's now invincible. But since Tom Brady won four, and went 16 - 0 this regular season, he's ripe for an upset? Makes no sense to me. The man who doesn't seem to often lose seems like the sure bet... at least compared to the guy whose Number 1 Receiver has not been seen alive since Week 10. For all we know, they had to amputate Marvin Harrison's legs, graft them onto Craphonso Thorpe... and for good measure put the hands on too.

Martz New O-Coordinator for 49ers (con't)

So, if you were with us last night then you'll already be familiar with the statistics I posted, but if you're just joining us now then I suggest you start with the previous post. What is obvious at first is that the 49er passing game has almost nowhere to go but up, since both their QBs and WRs were so bad that they were basically ignored in overall NFL rankings. Thus, assuming that Mike Martz returns to the skill he showed during his days in St. Louis, he should make for an excellent hire. Unfortunately, I don't think that will be the case.

First, let's look at his history with the Lions. Although Martz gave Kitna back to back 4000 yard passing seasons, Kitna failed to make the Pro Bowl even as an alternate. I think this speaks to a deep, systematic flaw in the way Martz coaches and runs his offense. This flaw starts with how he utilizes his running game. In St. Louis, Martz had Marshall Faulk. He was an exceptional player, but for those of you unfamiliar with him, what made him so great was that he was both a speedy and shifty runner and had spectacular hands coming out of the backfield or lined up as a WR. This double threat meant that Martz's flaws were obscured by the skill of his player, as teams still had to play the run against this team, because they would often pass the ball to Faulk in space, which is the equivalent of a running play. For a modern day example, look at what Sean Payton did with Reggie Bush this season. Quick, backfield passes towards the outside so that his player could use his speed and agility to avoid having to run through the Defensive Line. This season, Martz did not have this kind of receiving-running threat in Kevin Jones, Tatum Bell, or T.J. Duckett. What he did have were three running backs of not inconsiderable ability, Kevin Jones being a former first round pick, Tatum Bell having seen much success with the Denver Broncos, and T.J. Duckett having played the role of change of pace power back for the Atlanta Falcons from 2003-2005. I would argue that a coordinator of greater ability would have adapted his game plans to give Kevin Jones more than an average of NINE POINT FIVE (!!!) carries per game. Admittedly, there were worries about Kevin Jones' durability after his Lisfranc injury last season, but if that were the case, then spell him with Tatum Bell, who only saw 44 carries all season, or T.J. Duckett, who touched the ball 65 times. Totaled, this works out to 262 carries across the entire running back depth chart. That's one more than Joseph Addai had with the Indianapolis Colts all season. And you can't argue that their offense is just a little bit more balanced that Detroit's. For the record, Clinton Portis led all NFL RBs with 325 rushing attempts on the season.

With Martz's aversion to the run established, we should look at how he compensated for it, his passing game. It is here again that Martz shows his rigidity and dedication to his game plan. Unfortunately, that's not the quality that a developing team like the 49ers needs right now. Although Jon Kitna put up admirable numbers this season, one has to remember that if the running game is completely ignored and given the quality of receivers that the Lions have, 4000 yards doesn't mean as much for Kitna as would for someone like Jay Cutler, who put up 571 less yards in 106 less attempts. Given Martz's emphasis on the pass, it is easy to see how defenses clued in on this and thus made Kitna the most sacked QB in the league this year. As a final note, Martz's neglect of the running game has left Detroit so scarred that they have brought in TWO offensive coordinators for next year, Jim Colletto and Kippy Brown. What's funny, is that Colletto is being put in charge of the run and Brown in charge of the passing attack, with the presumable hope being that the two men will avoid emphasizing one over the other and bring some balance back to the Detroit offense.

So. We know that Martz loves the pass, needs RBs who can catch out of the backfield, and is a good QB and WR coach. San Francisco will need him to do a stellar job developing Alex Smith or his replacement. If they find someone through the draft, all the better. Shaun Hill is a possibility, although he will be 28 next year. Trent Dilfer is obviously far too old at this point to be a candidate. Furthermore, if he manages to motivate Darrell Jackson, the veteran receiver could be an excellent target for their young and developing QB. I'd also hold out hope that, at the very least, Martz will find ways to get Vernon Davis (who has tremendous physical potential) more than his 52 receptions from last season. Arnaz Battle has shown some potential as a secondary receiver, operating first across from Antonio Bryant (now out of the NFL) and more recently from Darrell Jackson, and could also be a viable target. Ashley Lelie is fast and although his route running and hands are slightly suspect he could do well in the slot. The potential among this WR/TE group for large performances are what led the media to pick the 49ers as a sleeper playoff team last season, however one must remember that they are also capable of turning in supbar performances like we just saw. They are nowhere near as established as Roy Williams or possess the physical abilities of Calvin Johnson (with perhaps the exception of Davis), however one must remember that it was Martz who oversaw Mike Furrey's emergence as a premiere possession receiver in the 2006 season after converting him from safety.

Despite this cause for optimism, I believe a repeat of his performance in Detroit last year is more than likely. Frank Gore can be a franchise RB and needs to get the ball. However he is a bulldozer more adept at going up the gut than getting the ball on the sides. He is faster than a Jamal Lewis or Deuce McAllister however, and with the help of Martz could possibly improve his receiving skills. More likely than not, however, his integration into this offense will depend mostly on Martz's flexibility and the hope that he learned something from Detroit and will use the running game more often than last year. Flexbility, however, has never been the strong suit of the man described as more likely to rip your hand off than shake it. Angering Gore could also turn the locker room against Martz, as he has been one of the few consistent offensive performers in the 49er team over the last several seasons. Also cause for concern in the O-Line of the 49ers. Although they have the offseason to address it, they need to either replace or get better play from the middle of their line. Joe Staley is a young player the team could build around, but he is not Joe Thomas, and a re-invention of the line akin to what happened in Cleveland this year is unlikely. Without a 1rst round pick in the upcoming draft, the prospect of getting an impact lineman seems even more remote. Young players such as Eric Heitmann (G) and David Baas (C) could have breakout years, but helping O-Line play has never been Martz's strong suit. A focus on the pass and the unbalanced offense it causes, as well as a young QB with poor pocket presence, could cause even more sacks than the 52 Jon Kitna was hit with this year past, and few players are as durable as Kitna.

As a final note, I encourage you to revisit these posts at the end of next year, and would remind you of a favorite quote of mine:
"The Lions are 4-2, media! "You can kiss my ass!"
- Mike Furrey, Detroit Lions WR, 2007

Mike Martz may enjoy some immediate success in San Francisco, he is still a moderately capable man. Furthermore, the talent on that team is not all that much below League par, it is just poorly motivated. However, don't be surprised if other teams figure his schemes out pretty fast and the 49ers slump down the stretch like the Lions did. Until Martz figures out how to use more than his "Greatest Show on Turf" gimmick, then that's all his offenses will ever be. The Rams had their glory days, and like all teams in the modern NFL, they eventually slid. Trent Green, Marshall Faulk, Kurt Warner, Isaac Bruce... quite a few of the players who made his years in St. Louis what they were are gone now, and if Martz doesn't adjust, this may be his last time around as well.

Martz New O-Coordinator for 49ers

It's difficult to see why this man is being given another shot, but I guess when a team pegged as a sleeper playoff pick goes 5 and 11 you get pretty desperate. It just seems to me like Mr. Martz doesn't exactly play to the team's strengths. I know he's supposed to be excellent at developing young quarterbacks, but on that praise alone it's difficult to see why he's being rehired, I mean Brian Billick had the same tag, and he was still fired. Although the "Greatest Show on Turf" certainly looks great on his resume, I think people should be giving more weight to his recent failure with the Lions. Going into the season, it seemed as if they would be at least fairly competitive, and despite a 6-2 start, they managed just a 7-9 record by the end of the season.

It's a well known fact that everybody loses their edge and, for the sake of argument, let's take his two years with the Lions as more indicative of his ability (not taking into account his final, full year with the St. Louis Rams in which he went 8-8, and then the year he took off, albeit for health reasons. Given this, it has been four years since he last coached a team to above .500. In 2003 his Rams went 12-4, but lost in the NFC divisional round.) So. Mike Martz was given possible playoff talent on offense and turned in a 7-9 result, in fairness, he was only the offensive coordinator, but I'd like to do some comparisons between his Lions team and the 49er team he'll inherit in San Francisco. Before we begin, I'd like you to try to name a 49ers Wide Receiver. Is his name Darrell Jackson, who clearly made his name with the Seahawks? Now try again. Vernon Davis doesn't count. The names you might be looking for are Arnaz Battle and Ashley Lelie. Now name three Lions ones. Calvin Johnson, Roy Williams, and perhaps Mike Furrey, NFC leader in receptions last year. If you can't see my point already, it will hopefully become obvious.

This Season, A Few Offensive (No Pun Intended) Stats

2007 Detroit Lions
QB: Jon Kitna
Completion Percentage: 63.3 (14th in the League)
Touchdown Percentage: 3.2% (22nd in League)
Sacks: 51 (32nd in the League)
Yards: 4068 (6th in the League)
Touchdowns: 18 (16th in the League)

RB: Kevin Jones
Attempts: 153 (35th in the League)
Yards: 581 (38th in the League, Two Way Tie)
Average Yards Per Attempt: 3.8 (38th in League, out of players with a minimum of 6.25 attempts in games played)
Average Yards Per Game: 44.7 (42nd in League, out of players with a minimum of 6.25 attempts in games played)
Touchdowns: 10th (8th in the League)

WR: Roy Williams
Yards: 836 (34th in the League)
Receptions: 63 (34th in the League)
Average Yards Per Catch: 13.3 (39th in the League)
Average Yards Per Game: 69.7 (22nd in the League)
Touchdowns: 5

WR: Calvin Johnson
Yards: 756
Receptions: 48
Average Yards Per Catch: 15.8 (10th in the League)
Average Yards Per Game: 50.4
Touchdowns: 4

WR: Shaun McDonald
Yards: 943 (28th in League)
Receptions: 79 (22nd in League)
Average Yards Per Catch: 11.9
Average Yards Per Game: 58.9 (35th in the League)
Touchdowns: 6 (28th in the League, Seven Way Tie)

2007 San Francisco 49ers
QB:
The 49ers suffered from instability at this position all season, and thus their statistics will not be recorded. The following starters were used: Alex Smith, Trent Dilfer, Shaun Hill, Chris Weinke. For the purposes of this comparison, the team can be assumed to have nobody even remotely as qualified as Jon Kitna.

RB: Frank Gore
Attempts: 260 (12th in the League)
Yards: 1102 (13th in the League)
Average Yards Per Attempt: 4.2 (23rd in the League)
Average Yards Per Game: 73.5 (15th in the League
Touchdowns: 5 (21rst in the League, Five Way Tie)

WR: Darrell Jackson
Yards: 497
Receptions: 46
Average Yards Per Catch: 10.8
Average Yards Per Game: 33.1
Touchdowns: 3

WR: Arnaz Battle
Yards: 600
Receptions: 50
Average Yards Per Catch: 12.0
Average Yards Per Game: 37.5
Touchdowns: 5

WR: Ashley Lelie
Yards: 115
Receptions: 10
Average Yards Per Catch: 11.5
Average Yards Per Game: 7.6
Touchdowns: 0

Conclusion to come tomorrow.

Gibbs Ressurected

Just thought that you'd enjoy a dissenting view to our earlier Gibbs retrospective. In Gibbs' defense, I think that Len Pasquarelli bit off a little bit more than he could chew by starting off trying to claim that a three time Super Bowl winning coach was just an Ordinary Joe, and I think concedes as much by the end of the column.

More posts to follow tonight on the Martz hiring.

Thanks,
Management

Coin Toss: Seahawks-Packers

I realize, of course, that our game coverage can in no way approximate that offered to you by our more established competitors, however the proprietor would like to thank you for dropping by and sharing your time with us.

First of all, I'm going to bet with the Mighty Men of Lambeau and say that the Packers are coming out of this one on top. But at the same time, I don't think they're going to win by much. Offensively, the Packers have a slight advantage. The 'Hawks running game has flagged in recent years with the decline of Shawn Alexander, and unless Maurice Morris can turn himself into a Ryan Grant, the Packers will be able to expect a lot more yards than the Seahawks. I think that because neither of these teams have a true franchise back, it's appropriate to combine the states of their top two. Over the season, the Seahawks have 1344 yards on 347 carries. The Pack has 1223 on 263 carries. The teams are kind of undergoing a reversal. The Seahawks were a running team at the beginning of the season that have turned the offense over to Matt Hasselbeck with great results. The Pack were a passing team that just stumbled upon Ryan Grant to give them a little bit of balance, especially in the late season "frozen tundra" of Lambeau Field. Passing, a declining Brett Favre is very comparable to Hasselbeck. Both spread the ball around efficiently and sometimes take shots downfield. I think if the Seahawks are going to find an edge it's in their passing game. Deion Branch has been injured for a lot of the season and is just starting to come online, in addition Bobby Engram, their slot receiver, had an amazing 1147 yards on the season. In comparison, Wes Welker, playing the same position, had 1175.

Now we come to the defense. Both teams have very solid linebackers (Seahawks with Julian Peterson and a ball-hawking Lofa Tatupu, Packers with the sturdy pair of Nick Barnett and AJ Hawk) and solid, if somewhat pedestrian, defensive lines. Interestingly, both are led by standout Left Ends, Patrick Kerney having finished the season with 14.5 sacks in compairison to Aaron Kampman's 12. Despite this, it's the cornerback and safety match up that really intrigues me. The Pack have the clear advantage at corner, with All-Pros Al Harris and Charles Woodson, in comparison to the Seahawks' Marcus Trufant and Jordan Babineaux. Unfortunately for the Pack, it's the slot they're really going to have to watch, and they don't have much depth at either corner or safety for nickel or dime packages. Being able to concentrate on their passing game because of a subpar running game is an advantage for the Packer defense, but it also could be what a slumping Shawn Alexander needs to get back in stride. The last thing to watch is for crisp tackling in the Seattle secondary. As our, albeit unwilling, friends at ESPN have pointed out, Green Bay is among the league leaders in Yards After Catch average among their wide receivers. I think it is partially for this reason that people don’t seem to realize that Brett Favre is much less of a gunslinger this year than in years past, as it’s his receivers who are making short throws into long plays, and not necessarily Mr. Favre’s ageing arm. A perfect example would be this highlight, in which Greg “His Horse is Thirsty” Jennings, made a short to medium reception into a massive touchdown. So, against these kind of wide receievers, the Seahawks corners and safeties are going to have to play close and tackle well, because too much space will mean big gains for the Green Bay offense.

Without further ado:

Outcome: Packers Win: 28 - 21

Offensive Stud: Watch for Packers WR Greg Jennings to make some small catches into big plays, especially with the attention Donald Driver will command from the Seahawks D.

Defensive Stud: Watch Charles Woodson and Al Harris in coverage, they'll have to make some big plays to stop Deion Branch and Bobby Engram.

Key Matchup: Watch how Kerney matches up against the Packer Right Tackle, Mark Tauscher. Brett Favre trying to make plays on the run could mean big Packer gains, or a key interception for a ball-hawking Seahawks defense.

BPYNHO: Strong Safety Atari Bigby will have to have a big day against Bobby Engram, because it's possible he'll be left in single coverage occasionally. If he gives up too many big plays, even shutdown coverage on the other Seahawk receivers might not save the Pack.

Introducing... Coin Toss: Coffin Corner Picks

The beginning of a second regular feature, our attempts at forecasting this weekend's football action. I'd like to have a brief breakdown of the game, a spotlight on the key matchup, as well as this game's forecasted stud, dud, and Best Player You've Never Heard Of, tentatively called the BPYNHO or possibly the Gibril Wilson Award. We'll find a catchier name later.

First up, Seahawks - Packers.

Watch this space.

Out at the One: Joe Gibbs Retrospective

In keeping with our status as the third to last place you check for all your football related news, by the time you reach us this story will have already been told to you several times, so whether or not the news is still "breaking" anymore isn't really the point. Nonetheless, Joe Gibbs is retiring.

Personally, I'm surprised. Taking into account that he had the five year contract with one year left, and that he seemed to have solidified the team to such an extent that a deep playoff run seems possible next year, it would have made sense for him stick it out. A lot of people are talking about family concerns, but discerning readers should probably note that any story that involves his family angle was most likely published AFTER the retirement announcement. Nonetheless, I see the strong possibility that the Head Coach who comes into this situation will have a very successful year in 2008. Somebody like Al Saunders (current Offensive Coordinator) could, given his familiarity with the team, pull something very much like Wade Phillips did this year, in the wake of Bill Parcells' departure. In that the coach, although certainly responsible for the schemes and playcalling, only did half the work as the roster itself was assembled in the years previous. The similarities are too large to ignore. Solid team, disappointing playoff loss (Redskins vs. Seahawks, Cowboys vs. Seahawks... although I'm not implying that the Seahawks themselves have anything to do with this), older head coach departs with generally positive feelings but slight amount of acrimony (Bill Parcells and T.O., Joe Gibbs and the timeout fiasco in Buffalo)... As a side note, did anyone notice that even though we're only in the first round of the playoffs, ESPN is already talking about this being a low year for Head Coach coach turnover? Although I'm not suggesting that most playoff teams will fire their head coaches, personnel moves have barely even started. At the very least we can hope that William Clay Ford wakes up somewhere and decides that the Lions are, in fact, a complete joke and SOMEONE should have to pay. At least someone whose name is not Mike Martz. Perhaps a Matt Millen?

Okay. Back to Joe Gibbs.

His record with the Redskins speaks for itself, and despite his inability in his most recent head coaching stint to bring his team back to the Super Bowl, he in no way fell short of his goals. Up until their memorable stretch run, there was a sense that Mr. Gibbs had past his prime, and had perhaps become too old for the sport. In those last four weeks there were several teams working to get that last Wild Card spot. The underachieving and occasionally dangerous Saints, the Vikings led by rookie Adrian Peterson's phenomenal performances, the offensively challenged but defensively strong Bears, and the improving Cardinals. Each team had to win most of those games and hope for a few key losses, but only Joe Gibbs' Redskins won all four, despite losing their starting Quarterback to injury and the shocking murder of Sean Taylor. Mr. Gibbs already has his rings, his trophies and his spot in Canton. What the end of this season was about was reminding everybody why he earned them in the first place. He goes out on top, and he will be missed.

As a side note, this will be the first of many regular updates, Out at the One being intended to mark the passing of any persons from the NFL. Warren Sapp certainly deserves a section, however I feel that he departed just several days too early to earn this prestigious recognition. Seriously though, his website will be missed. I can only hope he lets another up and coming DT take the domain name. Albert Haynesworth, with your stomping shenanigans included, I'm looking at you.

Pre-Game Show

Well, here we are.

Tuesday January 8th, 2007, 11:23AM. An inauspicious time to start a Football blog.

After several minutes of careful deliberation, and finding that Under the Bus was already taken, Coffin Corner Kick was the name settled upon. Hopefully with the retirement of Jeff Feagles and the disappearance of the Coffin Corner in favor of the Pooch, the name will give the blog a sense of forced antiquity. Then again, Jeff Feagles may just play forever. Please consider attending the launch party, to be held at 228 Bernard. Special guests will include: Drew Brees, John Madden, Horatio Cane, Larry Tripplett, DJ J.P. Losman (he's started in a new line of work), Hulk Hogan and the entire staff of the new and already widely acclaimed crime-busting, but Canadian, ICS unit. Michael Scoffield will be, for unknown reasons, unable to attend.

Further blogs, and attempts at regular features, to follow.