Martz New O-Coordinator for 49ers (con't)

So, if you were with us last night then you'll already be familiar with the statistics I posted, but if you're just joining us now then I suggest you start with the previous post. What is obvious at first is that the 49er passing game has almost nowhere to go but up, since both their QBs and WRs were so bad that they were basically ignored in overall NFL rankings. Thus, assuming that Mike Martz returns to the skill he showed during his days in St. Louis, he should make for an excellent hire. Unfortunately, I don't think that will be the case.

First, let's look at his history with the Lions. Although Martz gave Kitna back to back 4000 yard passing seasons, Kitna failed to make the Pro Bowl even as an alternate. I think this speaks to a deep, systematic flaw in the way Martz coaches and runs his offense. This flaw starts with how he utilizes his running game. In St. Louis, Martz had Marshall Faulk. He was an exceptional player, but for those of you unfamiliar with him, what made him so great was that he was both a speedy and shifty runner and had spectacular hands coming out of the backfield or lined up as a WR. This double threat meant that Martz's flaws were obscured by the skill of his player, as teams still had to play the run against this team, because they would often pass the ball to Faulk in space, which is the equivalent of a running play. For a modern day example, look at what Sean Payton did with Reggie Bush this season. Quick, backfield passes towards the outside so that his player could use his speed and agility to avoid having to run through the Defensive Line. This season, Martz did not have this kind of receiving-running threat in Kevin Jones, Tatum Bell, or T.J. Duckett. What he did have were three running backs of not inconsiderable ability, Kevin Jones being a former first round pick, Tatum Bell having seen much success with the Denver Broncos, and T.J. Duckett having played the role of change of pace power back for the Atlanta Falcons from 2003-2005. I would argue that a coordinator of greater ability would have adapted his game plans to give Kevin Jones more than an average of NINE POINT FIVE (!!!) carries per game. Admittedly, there were worries about Kevin Jones' durability after his Lisfranc injury last season, but if that were the case, then spell him with Tatum Bell, who only saw 44 carries all season, or T.J. Duckett, who touched the ball 65 times. Totaled, this works out to 262 carries across the entire running back depth chart. That's one more than Joseph Addai had with the Indianapolis Colts all season. And you can't argue that their offense is just a little bit more balanced that Detroit's. For the record, Clinton Portis led all NFL RBs with 325 rushing attempts on the season.

With Martz's aversion to the run established, we should look at how he compensated for it, his passing game. It is here again that Martz shows his rigidity and dedication to his game plan. Unfortunately, that's not the quality that a developing team like the 49ers needs right now. Although Jon Kitna put up admirable numbers this season, one has to remember that if the running game is completely ignored and given the quality of receivers that the Lions have, 4000 yards doesn't mean as much for Kitna as would for someone like Jay Cutler, who put up 571 less yards in 106 less attempts. Given Martz's emphasis on the pass, it is easy to see how defenses clued in on this and thus made Kitna the most sacked QB in the league this year. As a final note, Martz's neglect of the running game has left Detroit so scarred that they have brought in TWO offensive coordinators for next year, Jim Colletto and Kippy Brown. What's funny, is that Colletto is being put in charge of the run and Brown in charge of the passing attack, with the presumable hope being that the two men will avoid emphasizing one over the other and bring some balance back to the Detroit offense.

So. We know that Martz loves the pass, needs RBs who can catch out of the backfield, and is a good QB and WR coach. San Francisco will need him to do a stellar job developing Alex Smith or his replacement. If they find someone through the draft, all the better. Shaun Hill is a possibility, although he will be 28 next year. Trent Dilfer is obviously far too old at this point to be a candidate. Furthermore, if he manages to motivate Darrell Jackson, the veteran receiver could be an excellent target for their young and developing QB. I'd also hold out hope that, at the very least, Martz will find ways to get Vernon Davis (who has tremendous physical potential) more than his 52 receptions from last season. Arnaz Battle has shown some potential as a secondary receiver, operating first across from Antonio Bryant (now out of the NFL) and more recently from Darrell Jackson, and could also be a viable target. Ashley Lelie is fast and although his route running and hands are slightly suspect he could do well in the slot. The potential among this WR/TE group for large performances are what led the media to pick the 49ers as a sleeper playoff team last season, however one must remember that they are also capable of turning in supbar performances like we just saw. They are nowhere near as established as Roy Williams or possess the physical abilities of Calvin Johnson (with perhaps the exception of Davis), however one must remember that it was Martz who oversaw Mike Furrey's emergence as a premiere possession receiver in the 2006 season after converting him from safety.

Despite this cause for optimism, I believe a repeat of his performance in Detroit last year is more than likely. Frank Gore can be a franchise RB and needs to get the ball. However he is a bulldozer more adept at going up the gut than getting the ball on the sides. He is faster than a Jamal Lewis or Deuce McAllister however, and with the help of Martz could possibly improve his receiving skills. More likely than not, however, his integration into this offense will depend mostly on Martz's flexibility and the hope that he learned something from Detroit and will use the running game more often than last year. Flexbility, however, has never been the strong suit of the man described as more likely to rip your hand off than shake it. Angering Gore could also turn the locker room against Martz, as he has been one of the few consistent offensive performers in the 49er team over the last several seasons. Also cause for concern in the O-Line of the 49ers. Although they have the offseason to address it, they need to either replace or get better play from the middle of their line. Joe Staley is a young player the team could build around, but he is not Joe Thomas, and a re-invention of the line akin to what happened in Cleveland this year is unlikely. Without a 1rst round pick in the upcoming draft, the prospect of getting an impact lineman seems even more remote. Young players such as Eric Heitmann (G) and David Baas (C) could have breakout years, but helping O-Line play has never been Martz's strong suit. A focus on the pass and the unbalanced offense it causes, as well as a young QB with poor pocket presence, could cause even more sacks than the 52 Jon Kitna was hit with this year past, and few players are as durable as Kitna.

As a final note, I encourage you to revisit these posts at the end of next year, and would remind you of a favorite quote of mine:
"The Lions are 4-2, media! "You can kiss my ass!"
- Mike Furrey, Detroit Lions WR, 2007

Mike Martz may enjoy some immediate success in San Francisco, he is still a moderately capable man. Furthermore, the talent on that team is not all that much below League par, it is just poorly motivated. However, don't be surprised if other teams figure his schemes out pretty fast and the 49ers slump down the stretch like the Lions did. Until Martz figures out how to use more than his "Greatest Show on Turf" gimmick, then that's all his offenses will ever be. The Rams had their glory days, and like all teams in the modern NFL, they eventually slid. Trent Green, Marshall Faulk, Kurt Warner, Isaac Bruce... quite a few of the players who made his years in St. Louis what they were are gone now, and if Martz doesn't adjust, this may be his last time around as well.