For those of you who haven't seen these photos pasted all over ESPN and (if you're among the lucky group that gets it) the NFL Network, it shows Tony Romo and Jessica Simpson on a weekend getaway to Mexico that occurred during the Cowboys bye week. The way most people are talking, it would seem that this matters more than the other 21 starters on the field, but I guess they know more than I do. Despite the brou-ha-ha (I've always wanted to use that word), I'm going to pretend that everybody is going to be reasonably ready to go (injuries not included) and nobody ate a bucket of fried chicken before the game that might give them greasy hands... Tony Romo... Anyways. On with the Coin Toss.
I think I'm going to go with the Giants on this one. Higher seeded teams lose at home sometimes. It happens. It happens every year. If I picked the higher seeded team for all my matchups, I'd probably get more right than wrong... but where's the fun in that. This Giants team was the surprise of the season. They're around every year. There's only two rules about them:
1) Nobody thinks they'll amount to anything at the beginning of the season
2) Nobody predicts them as being the "surprise." (see this year's 49ers team)
The Giants lose their star running back to retirement, they have a QB with a spotty record who is constantly questioned. What seemed like a huge black hole at the RB position (Reuben Droughns, a unpolished Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward (??? Hands up if you knew who this guy was before this season)) has turned into what I once heard referred to as a "three-headed monster." Now, if Reuben Droughns is one of those heads, then they aren't exactly all scary monster: lion, dragon, etc. But even one of the Chimera's three heads was a goat's... so that's Reuben Droughns. Joking aside, these guys have each found a niche: Droughns as a goal line situation back, Jacobs as the workhorse and Ward as the change of pace. The Giants will be without Ward, as he's on IR, but that's still a decent one-two punch. And Ahmad Bradshaw is filling in nicely. Furthermore, Eli Manning has finally won 'the big game' (his first postseason win). If doing that, except in the Super Bowl, briefly slew all of Peyton Manning's demons, at least until the explosion of Tom Brady this season, then surely this win by the younger Manning makes him at least a credible QB.
This is combined with what I think is a fairly weak Dallas secondary. The front seven is pretty scary. They've got some big playmakers (DeMarcus Ware), some emerging talent (Jay Ratliffe, Anthony Spears), and some complete unknowns that pile up monster stats (Greg Ellis). Unfortunately, all the pressure these guys can put on leaves corners on an island against the WR they're matched up with, and I wouldn't look for too much help from the safeties Ken Hamlin and Roy Williams. Williams' coverage skills have always been kind of suspect, his skill laying more in hitting the receiver once he has the ball... and Hamlin was released from the Seahawks just last season because he was part of a secondary team that let up too many big plays. Anthony Henry and Terrance Newman will have to be at the top of their games, and unfortunately they have had a poor streak of games recently. The Giants' WRs are crafty veterans (Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burress) who are sure to get away with a couple big plays. What I think the game breaker here is going to be is performance of rookie TE Kevin Boss, replacing Jeremy Shockey, who is on IR. Eli Manning is still a developing QB, and he needs outlets like a good TE who he can throw to if he gets in trouble. Kevin Boss will have to prove he's a threat that needs safety coverage by making big plays when he's just covered by an LB.
In terms of the Dallas offense against the Giants defense, I see a lot of the game coming down to the effectiveness of the Dallas offensive tackles. Jason Witten, the Dallas TE, has managed a massive 1145 yards on the season, largely by taking advantage of the linebackers assigned to cover him. The reason few teams give him safety coverage is because they need to bracket T.O. Where this matchup gets INCREDIBLY interesting is the new distribution of players the presence of Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora cause. These players had, between them, a whopping 22 sacks on the season. They are dangerous pass rushers. T.O. probably requires Gibril Wilson (Giants SS) and Sam Madison (Giants CB) to work together and cover him on most snaps. This would usually leave Jason Witten covered by somebody like Mathias Kiwanuka (Giants OLB). Despite Kiwanuka's athleticism, that is a fairly favorable matchup for Tony Romo, since there would be very little safety help on the coverage. Unfortunately, the Giants have a pair of excellent DEs. Although Flozell Adams (Cowboys LT) would certainly be able to neutralize one of them on most plays, I wouldn't count on Marc Colombo (RT) to consistently handle the other. Although amazingly strong, he does not yet have the technique to reliably neutralize Strahan or Umenyiora. It is possible to divert the RG Leonard Davis, an excellent player in his own right, to help, that would leave Dallas vulnerable to sacks from LBs or DTs. It is therefore more likely that Witten, an excellent blocker, will be called in to help on at least some snaps. This is, however, a waste of his abilities. How Jason Garrett, Cowboys Offensive Coordinator, decides to deal with Strahan and Umenyiora should be watched very closely, as it will have a lot to do with how the game finishes.
Outcome: Giants Win 24 - 21
Offensive Stud: Eli Manning. This is the gamble of a lifetime, but I think that now, in the hardest game of his life, is the time that all the pressure finally turns what a lot of people thought was just a lump of coal into a diamond. He's focusing a lot better and, believe it or not, learns from his mistakes. He looked almost lost against the Cowboys in their last regular season game, but I think he's played this group enough that he has an idea as to where to go with the ball now. I'm not saying he'll produce fireworks. Watch for checkdown passes and careful QB play. But as long as he doesn't spectacularly implode like he did against Minnesota, this Giants team has a pretty good shot of getting out of Dallas with a win.
Defensive Stud: Michael Strahan, who I expect will respond to the pressure of the playoffs and harass Tony Romo quite a bit.
Key Matchup: Jason Witten. If he's in protection or catching passes will have a lot to do with the final outcome of this game. I have no doubt that he could take a lot of pressure off Tony Romo if he stays back to pass block, but without him on the field to distract from an injured T.O. and a rusty Terry Glenn, I question whether what seems like a normally stacked Dallas recieving group will struggle against the Giants' defense. If does, it will come down on Marion Barber and Julius Jones to run Dallas to daylight.
BPYNHO: Kevin Boss. The rookie TE will be looked at as a possible outlet if Manning gets pressured, and he'll need to come up with some big catches to take double coverage away from Plaxico Burress.
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