Coin Toss: Seahawks-Packers

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First of all, I'm going to bet with the Mighty Men of Lambeau and say that the Packers are coming out of this one on top. But at the same time, I don't think they're going to win by much. Offensively, the Packers have a slight advantage. The 'Hawks running game has flagged in recent years with the decline of Shawn Alexander, and unless Maurice Morris can turn himself into a Ryan Grant, the Packers will be able to expect a lot more yards than the Seahawks. I think that because neither of these teams have a true franchise back, it's appropriate to combine the states of their top two. Over the season, the Seahawks have 1344 yards on 347 carries. The Pack has 1223 on 263 carries. The teams are kind of undergoing a reversal. The Seahawks were a running team at the beginning of the season that have turned the offense over to Matt Hasselbeck with great results. The Pack were a passing team that just stumbled upon Ryan Grant to give them a little bit of balance, especially in the late season "frozen tundra" of Lambeau Field. Passing, a declining Brett Favre is very comparable to Hasselbeck. Both spread the ball around efficiently and sometimes take shots downfield. I think if the Seahawks are going to find an edge it's in their passing game. Deion Branch has been injured for a lot of the season and is just starting to come online, in addition Bobby Engram, their slot receiver, had an amazing 1147 yards on the season. In comparison, Wes Welker, playing the same position, had 1175.

Now we come to the defense. Both teams have very solid linebackers (Seahawks with Julian Peterson and a ball-hawking Lofa Tatupu, Packers with the sturdy pair of Nick Barnett and AJ Hawk) and solid, if somewhat pedestrian, defensive lines. Interestingly, both are led by standout Left Ends, Patrick Kerney having finished the season with 14.5 sacks in compairison to Aaron Kampman's 12. Despite this, it's the cornerback and safety match up that really intrigues me. The Pack have the clear advantage at corner, with All-Pros Al Harris and Charles Woodson, in comparison to the Seahawks' Marcus Trufant and Jordan Babineaux. Unfortunately for the Pack, it's the slot they're really going to have to watch, and they don't have much depth at either corner or safety for nickel or dime packages. Being able to concentrate on their passing game because of a subpar running game is an advantage for the Packer defense, but it also could be what a slumping Shawn Alexander needs to get back in stride. The last thing to watch is for crisp tackling in the Seattle secondary. As our, albeit unwilling, friends at ESPN have pointed out, Green Bay is among the league leaders in Yards After Catch average among their wide receivers. I think it is partially for this reason that people don’t seem to realize that Brett Favre is much less of a gunslinger this year than in years past, as it’s his receivers who are making short throws into long plays, and not necessarily Mr. Favre’s ageing arm. A perfect example would be this highlight, in which Greg “His Horse is Thirsty” Jennings, made a short to medium reception into a massive touchdown. So, against these kind of wide receievers, the Seahawks corners and safeties are going to have to play close and tackle well, because too much space will mean big gains for the Green Bay offense.

Without further ado:

Outcome: Packers Win: 28 - 21

Offensive Stud: Watch for Packers WR Greg Jennings to make some small catches into big plays, especially with the attention Donald Driver will command from the Seahawks D.

Defensive Stud: Watch Charles Woodson and Al Harris in coverage, they'll have to make some big plays to stop Deion Branch and Bobby Engram.

Key Matchup: Watch how Kerney matches up against the Packer Right Tackle, Mark Tauscher. Brett Favre trying to make plays on the run could mean big Packer gains, or a key interception for a ball-hawking Seahawks defense.

BPYNHO: Strong Safety Atari Bigby will have to have a big day against Bobby Engram, because it's possible he'll be left in single coverage occasionally. If he gives up too many big plays, even shutdown coverage on the other Seahawk receivers might not save the Pack.