To start off: Patriots 27 - Giants - 20
Vegas has the Patriots at a +14 spread, but I don't think the Giants will let them run away with the game. If you're as betting man, unofficial figures have about 75% of bets placed going with the Giants.
I'd prepare a matchup against matchup thing like I did a couple weeks back, but it's a bit of a waste of time. The Giants are just going to have to play amazing football. Coverage will have to be good, especially against the long ball, and run defense in the red zone will have to be sharp. There's some talk about Plaxico Burress' ankle, but he's played all season on it, so he'll for sure play in the Super Bowl. The Giants are also no longer sick, having now recovered from the flu that they had earlier. While at physio yesterday, I heard somebody talking about how you can't beat the Patriots because you can't double all their WRs. I'd like to refer you to my 'How to Beat the Patriots Post,' which links to a VERY good article, if you're somebody who thinks like that. The Giants don't have to double everybody, they just have to recognize the patterns. Stallworth basically only runs fly routes, so you just need a guy who runs with him. Wes Welker does curl routes and routes across the middle, so you need effective zone coverage on him and somebody who tackles well near him. Gaffney comes in rarely and can also be dealt with by a zone coverage scheme. The only guy that TRULY needs to be doubled is Moss. And even then, as long as you go all out and prevent any very long receptions by him, the team struggles a bit. Most of their passing touchdowns happen from 40 or so yards out. The Giants have good safeties and a group of crafty corners. And their pass rush will once again play to their strengths. I'd watch Matt Light this afternoon. If he can't match up against Osi Umenyiora, then the Patriots passing game will have a very strict time clock. What I'd watch out for especially though, is the double team Strahan is going to need. I'm going to doubt that Nick Kaczur can match up one -on- one against him, so he might need some help from the RG. That kind of double team doesn't work to the Patriots advantage, but it also doesn't help the Giants a huge amount because Logan Mankins at LG and Dan Coppen at C can probably handle the Giants DTs, who lack real pass rush ability. If the Giants are going to get their offense going they'll need huge performances from Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burress. The Burress - Samuel matchup is a bit of an advantage for the Giants because he has 7 inches and 40 pounds on him. What doesn't play to the Giants' advantage is Amani Toomer. Against the Patriots, you need to stretch the field because of their slow linebackers and physical rather than coverage Safeties. Neither Toomer or an injured Burress, are real speed threats. So their rookie, Steve Smith, will have to step up and stretch the coverage from the slot. He'll work in concert with rookie TE Kevin Boss who can play the areas opened underneath by that kind of route. Both of the Giants' RBs have the speed (Bradshaw) and power (Jacobs) to match up well against the Patriots LBs, but they have to get past Vince Wilfork (Pats DT), first. It's not a good situation for your passing game to rely on Eli Manning (who I don't think will have a bad game, but you never know) and several rookies in an event as distracting as the Super Bowl, but that's the situation they're in.
We'll be back later with more news.
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